በፊች የደረጃ ምደባ፣ የኢትዮጵያን ኢኮኖሚ ደረጃ ሲሲሲ ኔጌቲቭ አሽቆለቆለ! የቆሎ ተማሪ እዳ፣ የዕለት እንጀራችንን ስጠን!

ክፍል አንድ
ሚሊዮን ዘአማኑኤል (ኢት-ኢኮኖሚ)

በፊች የደረጃ ምደባ፣ የኢትዮጵያን ኢኮኖሚ ደረጃ ከሲሲሲ ፖዘቲቨ (‘CCC+’) ወደ ሲሲሲ ኔጌቲቭ (‘CCC-) ማሽቆልቆሉን በዲሴንበር 20 ቀን 2022 እኤአ የአሜሪካ ፊች የብድር ምዘና ኤጀንሲ መረጃ አስታውቆል፡፡“Fitch Ratings – Hong Kong – 20 Dec 2022: Fitch Ratings has downgraded Ethiopia’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘CCC-‘ from ‘CCC’. Fitch typically does not assign Outlooks to sovereigns with a rating of ‘CCC’ or below. Fitch has removed the Long-Term IDRs from Under Criteria Observation (UCO).”……………………………….(1)

የመንግሥት ዕዳ ክምችት የሥጋት ደረጃ ከሲሲሲ ፖዘቲቨ (‘CCC+’) ወደ ሲሲሲ ኔጌቲቭ (‘CCC-) በማሽቆልቆሉ አዳዲስ የውጭ ብድሮች ማግኘትና የእዳ ሽግሽግ ድርድሮችን በማካሄድ የውጭ እዳን ክምችትን እንዳይጨምር ማድረግ አይቻልም፡፡

የብድር ቁልፍ የምዘና መንገዶች  (KEY RATING DRIVERS)

የኢትዮጵያ  የረጅም  ጊዜ  የውጭ  ምንዛሪ ሁኔታ በቁልፍ የምዘና መንገዶች ማሞላት ተስኖት እዳቸውን ከማይከፍሉት  ምድብ ተርታ ተሰልፋለች፡፡ Ethiopia’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) ከሲሲሲ ፖዘቲቨ (‘CCC+’) ወደ ሲሲሲ ኔጌቲቭ (‘CCC-) ከደረጃዋ ዝቅ እንድትል እንድትወርድ ተገዳለች፡፡ ኢትዮጵያ የውጭ ብድር የሚያበድራት ዋስ የምትጠቅስው ሃገርና ድርጅት በማጣት ዘለቄታዊ የውጭ ብድር የማግኘት እድሎ ተመናምኖል፡፡  በዚህም የተነሳ ምርቶቾና እቃዎች እየረከሰ መሄድና የገንዘብ ፍስቱም እየተናጋ ሄዶል፡፡  በኖቨንበር 2022 እኤአ የተደረገው የትግራይ ጦርነት የሠላም ስምምነት በመካከለኛ ጊዜ የማክሮ እና የፊስካል ኢኮኖሚ እንዲሻሻል ያደርግ ይሆናል፡፡ የዓለም አቀፍ የምርት አቅርቦት ችግር የተነሳ የኑሮ ውድነት ቀውስ ተከስቶል፣እንዲሁም  የመንግሥታዊ ብድር መሻሻል ሥርዓት ይሽል፡፡

Downgrade of IDRs: The downgrade of Ethiopia’s LT FC IDR to ‘CCC-‘ reflects the lack of identified external financing necessary to meet substantial external financing gaps, along with a material decline in Ethiopia’s external liquidity. This is balanced against the November 2022 peace agreement reached in the Tigray War, which will improve the medium-term macro and fiscal outlooks; the expected easing of global supply chain constraints, which will help to ease inflationary and external pressures; and the improvement of public debt metrics.

ኢትዮጵያ የውጭ ብድር የወለድ ክፍያ፡-የኢትዮጵያ የውጭ ብድር አገልግሎት ችግር የውጭ ብድር ፍስት መባባስ ፊች በገመተው መሠረት በጁን 2023እኤአ ኢትዮጵያ የውጭ ብድር የወለድ ክፍያ 1.6 ቢሊዮን ዶላር ሲሆን በ2024እኤአ ደግሞ አንድ ቢሊዮን ዶላር የወለድ ክፍያ ይጠበቅባታል፡፡

ኢትዮጵያ የውጭ ምንዛሪ ክምችት፡- ኢትዮጵያ በ2022 እኤአ የነበራት 1.5 ቢሊዮን ዶላር  የውጭ ምንዛሪ ክምችት ለአንድ ወር ያነሰ ግዢ መፈጸሚያ ብቻ እንደነበር ይታወቃል፡፡ በተመሳሳይ ኢትዮጵያ በ2023 እኤአ የሚኖራት 1.7 ቢሊዮን ዶላር የውጭ ምንዛሪ ክምችት ለ18 ቀናት ግዢ መፈጸሚያ ብቻ እንደሚሆን አይኤምኤፍ ተነበየ፡፡ በ2021 የነበረው የውጭ ምንዛሪ ክምችት ለአንድ ወር ከግማሽ የውጭ ግዢዎች ክፍያ የሚበቃ ነበር፡፡…….የኢትዮጵያ የውጭ እዳ ክምችት ከአጠቃላይ አገራዊ ምርት (ጂዲፒ) 25 በመቶ መድረሱን የአይኤምኤፍ መረጃ ያመለክታል፡፡

የኢትዮጵያ አጠቃላይ የውጭ እዳ መጠን፡- የኢትዮጵያ ገንዘብ ሚኒስቴር ባለፈው መስከረም ወር ያወጣው የአገሪቱ አጠቃላይ የውጭ እዳ መጠን 27.9 ቢሊዮን ዶላር መድረሱንና ይህም ከጂዲፒው 25 በመቶ መሆኑን ያመለክታል፡፡……………………..…….(2)

Worsening External Liquidity: In the absence of a CF debt treatment that would reduce Ethiopia’s external debt servicing burden and facilitate the disbursement of additional external financing, the country’s external liquidity will continue to worsen. Fitch estimates that Ethiopia faces USD1.6 billion in external debt interest payments in the fiscal year ending June 2023 (FY23) and USD1 billion in FY24. This represents 2.3% and 2.2% of current external receipts, which compares favourably with the ‘B’/’C’/’D’ medians of 3.7% and 4%. However, gross international reserves fell to USD1.5 billion (less than one month of current external payments) in FY22, and a widening current account deficit will see reserves fall further in FY23. We forecast the current account deficit plus net FDI at USD1.7 billion in FY23.

ፊች ግምት መሠረት የኢትዮጵያ የተጣራ የውጭ ዕዳ 166 በመቶ  አሁን ባለው የውጭ ገቢ በ2022 እኤአ መጨረሻ ሲወዳደር 58 በመቶ ድርሻ አለው፡፡  ከዚህ ውስጥ 28 ቢሊዮን ዶላር   የአገር ውስጥ የመንግሥት ዕዳ ሲሆን፣ 19 (አስራ ዘጠኝ) ቢሊዮን ደላር በማዕከላዊው መንግሥት የተወሰደ ቀጥተኛ እዳ ነው፡፡ በተመሳሳይ መንግሥት ዩሮቦንድ የወሰደው አንድ ቢሊዮን ዶላር  ክፍያ በዲሴምበር 2024እኤአ ክፍያው ተፈጻሚ ይሆናል፡፡  መንግሥታዊ የልማት ድርጅቶች (SOE) ቀሪውን  9 (ዘጠኝ) ቢሊዮን ዶላር የውጭ ብድር ትርፋማ በመሆናቸው እዳቸውን የመክፈል ግዴታቸውን መወጣት ይችላሉ፡፡ Fitch estimates that Ethiopia’s net external debt at 166% of current external receipts at end-FY22; compared with the ‘B’/’C’/’D’ median of 58%. Of the USD28 billion outstanding in external public sector debt, USD19 billion is owed directly by the central government. We believe that Ethiopia’s state-owned enterprises (SOE), which hold the remaining amount, are profitable and able to meet their financing obligations. ….The government will face a sharp increase in external debt amortisations in FY25, with the coming due of the USD1 billion Eurobond in December 2024.

የኢንቨይሮመንት ሶሻልና መልካም አስተዳደር መመዘኛ ታሳቢዎች (ESG CONSIDERATIONS)

የኢትዮጵያ የመበደር መብት ገፅታዋና አቆሞን (credit profile) የኢንቨይሮመንት ሶሻልና መልካም አስተዳደር መመዘኛዎች ባለሞሞላት ሲሲሲ ፖዘቲቨ  (‘CCC+’) ወደ ሲሲሲ ኔጌቲቭ (‘CCC-) ደረጃ ወርዳለች፡፡ መመዘኛዎቹን እንሆ፡-   ESG – Governance: Ethiopia has an ESG Relevance Score (RS) of ‘5’ for both Political Stability and Rights and for the Rule of Law, Institutional and Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption. Theses scores reflect the high weight that the World Bank Governance Indicators (WBGI) have in our proprietary Sovereign Rating Model. Ethiopia has a low WBGI ranking at 23.6, reflecting the absence of a recent track record of peaceful political transitions, relatively weak rights for participation in the political process, weak institutional capacity, uneven application of the rule of law and a high level of corruption.

የፖለቲካ መረጋጋትና መብቶች መመዘኛ፤ ኢትዮጵያ የኢንቨይሮመንት ሶሻልና ገቨርናንስ ታሳቢ ያደረገ የፖለቲካ መረጋጋትና መብቶችን ያካተተ መመዘኛዋችን በተለይም የዓለም ባንክ ገቨርናንስ መመዘኛዎችን World Bank Governance Indicators (WBGI) ያካተተ የፊች ቁልፍ የደረጃ ነጥቦችን ኢትዮጵያ ደረጃ ከመቶ ሃምሳ በታች በማስመዝገብ የአስተዳደር መመዘኛዎችን (ገቨርናንስ መመዘኛ)  ባለሞሞላት  የብድር አጠቃላይ ገፅታዋና አቆሞን (credit profile)  ኔጌቲቨ እንዲሆን አድርጎታል፡፡Ethiopia has an ESG Relevance Score of ‘5’ for Political Stability and Rights as WBGIs have the highest weight in Fitch’s SRM and are therefore highly relevant to the rating and a key rating driver with a high weight. As Ethiopia has a percentile rank below 50 for the respective governance indicator, this has a negative impact on the credit profile.

የመልካም አስተዳደርና ሙስና መመዘኛ፤ ኢትዮጵያ የኢንቨይሮመንት ሶሻልና ገቨርናንስ ታሳቢ ያደረገ የህግ የበላይነት፣ ሙስናን የሚመክት መደበኛ ብቃት ጥራትና ተቆጣጣሪ ተቌም  የዓለም ባንክ ገቨርናንስ መመዘኛዎችን የሚያሟላና የፊች ቁልፍ የደረጃ ነጥቦችን ኢትዮጵያ ደረጃ ከመቶ ሃምሳ በታች በማስመዝገብ የአስተዳደር መመዘኛዎችን ባለሞሟላት  የብድር አጠቃላይ ገፅታዋና አቆሞን (credit profile)  ኔጌቲቨ እንዲሆን አድርጎታል፡፡Ethiopia has an ESG Relevance Score of ‘5’ for Rule of Law, Institutional and Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption as WBGIs have the highest weight in Fitch’s SRM and are therefore highly relevant to the rating and are a key rating driver with a high weight. As Ethiopia has a percentile rank below 50 for the respective Governance Indicators, this has a negative impact on the credit profile.

የስብዓዊ መብቶችና የፖለቲካ ነፃነት መመዘኛ፤ ኢትዮጵያ የኢንቨይሮመንት፣ ሶሻልና መልካም አስተዳደርን ታሳቢ ያደረገ የስብዓዊ መብቶችና የፖለቲካ ነፃነትና  የዓለም ባንክ ገቨርናንስ መመዘኛዎችን የሚያሟላና የፊች ቁልፍ የደረጃ ነጥቦችን ኢትዮጵያ ደረጃ ከመቶ ሃምሳ በታች በማስመዝገብ የአስተዳደር መመዘኛዎችን ባለሞሟላት  የብድር አጠቃላይ ገፅታዋና አቆሟን (credit profile)  ኔጌቲቨ እንዲሆን አድርጎታል፡፡ Ethiopia has an ESG Relevance Score of ‘4’ for Human Rights and Political Freedoms, as the Voice and Accountability pillar of the WBGI is relevant to the rating and a rating driver. As Ethiopia has a percentile rank below 50 for the respective governance indicator, this has a negative impact on the credit profile.

አገልግሎት የመስጠት ፍቃደኝነትና  ዕዳ የመክፈል መመዘኛ፤ መሠረት ኢትዮጵያ የኢንቨይሮመንት፣ ሶሻልና መልካም አስተዳደርን ታሳቢ ያደረገ አገልግሎት የመስጠት ፍቃደኝነትና  ዕዳ የመክፈል ባህል የዓለም ባንክ ገቨርናንስ መመዘኛዎችን የሚያሟላና የፊች ቁልፍ የደረጃ ነጥቦችን ኢትዮጵያ ከቅርብ ጊዜ ጀምራ  መንግስታዊ እዳዋን ከ2006 እኢአ ጀምራ ሥርዓት ያሳያዘችው በዚህም ደረጃዋን  ባለሞሟላት  የብድር አጠቃላይ ገፅታዋና አቆሟን (credit profile)  አሉታዊ  እንዲሆን አድርጎታል፡፡ Ethiopia has an ESG Relevance Score of ‘4’ for Creditor’s Rights, as willingness to service and repay debt is relevant to the rating and is a rating driver for Ethiopia, as for all sovereigns. As Ethiopia has a fairly recent restructuring of public debt in 2006, this has a negative impact on the credit profile.

ከፍተኛዉ  የኢንቨይሮመንት፣ ሶሻልና መልካም አስተዳደርን መመዘኛዎችን ታሳቢ ያደረገ ሦስት ነጥቦችን የያዘ፣  ማለትም እነዚህን መመዘኛዎች ያካተተ  የዓለም ባንክ ገቨርናንስ መመዘኛዎችን የሚያሟላና የፊች ቁልፍ የደረጃ ነጥቦችን  የብድር አጠቃላይ ገፅታ (credit profile)  ለመረዳት ለተጨማሪ መረጃዎች ድር-ገፁን ይጎብኙ፡፡ Except for the matters discussed above, the highest level of ESG credit relevance, if present, is a score of ‘3’. This means ESG issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity, either due to their nature or to the way in which they are being managed by the entity. For more information on Fitch’s ESG Relevance Scores, visitwww.fitchratings.com/esg.

የቆሎ ተማሪ እዳ ‹‹የእለት እንጀራችንን ስጠን!!!›› የአዲስ አበባ ተማሪዎች የነጻነት ጥያቄን የዳቦ ጥያቄ ላረጉ የብልፅግና ፓርቲ ፖለቲከኞች ሆዳቸውን የሚሞሉት በብድር እዳ መሆኑን ዘንግተው፣ተማሪዎች በግብር ከፋዩ ኃብት መመገባቸውን ረስተው ልጆቹን ለማሸማቀቅ ያደረጉት ሴራ ከሽፎል፡፡ ጃንሆይ ለዓለምማያ ዩኒቨርሲቲ ተማሪዎች  በቧንቧ  ወተት ያጠጡ የነበረበት ወርቃማ ዘመን ነበር፡፡

ምንጭ

(1) Fitch Downgrades Ethiopia to ‘CCC-‘; Removes From UCO/Tue 20 Dec, 2022 – 5:36 AM ET

(2) ኢትዮጵያ የሚኖራት የውጭ ምንዛሪ ክምችት ለ18 ቀናት ግዢ መፈጸሚያ ብቻ እንደሚሆን አይኤምኤፍ ተነበየ፡፡ ኦክቶበር 19 ቀን 2022እኤአ ሪፖርተር ጋዜጣ